Prichard, Alabama 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

950
FXUS64 KMOB 070551
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1251 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

...New Aviation...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Tonight Through Saturday Night...

The period opens with an upper level ridge of high pressure
centered from the central Gulf, westward across the Rio Grande
with an upper trof sliding east off the Mid-Atlantic coast. At the
surface, high pressure over the central FL Peninsula was nosing
westward and holds in this position, resulting in a warm,
southwest flow to open up the weekend. Deep environmental moisture
over the central Gulf coast (PWATs 1.6 to 1.8") persists and in
combination with daytime instability, isolated to scattered
showers and storms to be expected the remainder of the day. A look
at the high resolution CAM`s, suggests we will be in a diurnal
convective mode with any lingering daytime activity carrying over
into evening will begin to weaken/dissipate. Late in the night,
expect to see development off the coast and expect the same
Saturday night. May have to watch for waterspouts near the coast
considering the favorable environment. As the environment
destabilizes Saturday and considering the deep layer and
sufficient moisture profile, a return to slight chance to chance
PoPs is expected through the course of the day over land areas. At
the present time, the position of the Gulf upper ridge looks to
mostly shield the forecast area from organized convection. The
more active westerlies looks to be to our north where a series of
mid- level impulses and the more focused ascent in the form of
strong to perhaps severe convective complexes translate eastward
over the Lower MS River Valley on Saturday. In this pattern, the
better risk of severe storms is focused more from the Red River
Valley of Texas/Oklahoma, eastward into the Carolinas. The
southern extent of a slight risk of severe storms does skirt the
far northern zones along and north of a line from Butler to
Greenville AL Saturday. From there, a marginal risk of severe
storms extends south to the I- 10 corridor.

A moderate risk of rip currents is expected as we start the
weekend. /10

Sunday Through Thursday...

The active, unsettled pattern returns next week.

Multiple waves of showers and storms are expected throughout the
period, especially Monday through Thursday. The upper level ridge
stretching across Mexico and into the Gulf this weekend will
retreat (somewhat) next week as a broad upper level trough slides
across much of the eastern half of the CONUS. Ridging should
remain in control of most of the local area on Sunday, which
should result in one more day with a diurnal convective pattern.
Rain chances on Sunday afternoon will remain highest further
inland where there will be less of an influence from the ridge.
Numerous shortwaves pivot through the region in the westerly to
northwesterly flow aloft as we roll through both Monday and
Tuesday next week. While the trough begins to lift out of the
region on Wednesday, a potent shortwave over Texas will begin to
pivot into the Plains later in the week. Meanwhile, the surface
high over the western Atlantic continues to extend into the
Southeast and the eastern Gulf this weekend through next week.
Southwesterly to westerly flow at the surface will continue to
allow plenty of moisture to flow into the area in this pattern.
Rain chances increase next week with numerous showers and storms
each day. Rain chances remain high through the evening and
overnight hours at times, but pinpointing exactly which days is
difficult at this point given the parade of shortwaves sliding
across the area. We will be able to refine the rain chances as we
get closer in time. High POPs and increased cloud cover will lead
to slightly cooler daytime high temperatures Monday through
Wednesday. At this point, we are not overly concerned with a
threat for severe storms next week. That being said, we will need
to monitor for any clusters of storms (MCSs) diving out of the
Plains early next week when we`re still in northwest flow aloft.

Beach Forecast - The rip current risk remains MODERATE through
Tuesday. The latest rip current probability guidance continues to
trend downward as we roll into the middle to latter part of next
week, so a LOW risk is possible Wednesday onward. 07/mb

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1246 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through 12z Sunday, along with light
mainly southwesterly winds. Isolated showers and thunderstorms may
develop along the coast late tonight into Saturday, so may need to
add VCTS to the JKA/PNS TAFs. /22

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 316 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

A light to moderate southwesterly flow will persist through early
next week, and there will be an uptick in shower and thunderstorm
activity early next week. Overall, low impactful weather is
anticipated for small craft operators outside of any storms where
winds and seas will be locally higher. May have to also watch for
some isolated AM waterspouts over the weekend. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      75  93  73  90  73  88  71  88 /   0  50  60  70  70  80  70  80
Pensacola   79  91  77  88  77  88  76  87 /  10  50  70  70  70  70  70  70
Destin      80  90  78  88  78  88  78  88 /  20  50  70  70  70  70  70  70
Evergreen   74  93  71  89  70  88  69  88 /  10  70  70  80  70  90  60  80
Waynesboro  72  91  70  88  69  85  68  87 /  10  70  60  80  70  80  60  70
Camden      74  88  70  85  68  83  67  85 /  30  80  60  80  70  80  50  70
Crestview   74  93  72  90  72  89  71  89 /  10  70  70  80  70  90  60  90

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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